Haven't been posting in a long time and today is a lousy day here in Chicago. (it is supposed to snow all day) So...rather than going out and buy xmas presents I figured I put some of my thoughts down.
Stock market looks good. We closed at new multi months highs on Friday, Volatility is at its lowest level since May this year...all in all everything looks like a perfect set up for a year end rally.
Needless to say...being my usual self I see a whole bunch of potential problems which might derail the happy ending for the year.
Just to name a few...
- Chinese Inflation numbers ticking up with the consequence that additional tightening in Chinese monetary policy will raise the fear gauge and lead to selling pressure.
- failure by Congress to pass the extension of Bush tax cuts which would almost certainly lead to some sort of correction in stock prices.
- Problems originating out of the Euro area (Portugal should be next on the shoot down list) with all the negative consequences associated with it
- Continued rise in long term interest rates here in the US which might open up the debate why we have seen one of the fastest rise in longer term rates seen during more recent history.
These are just the main ones...which to some extent have been priced into the market.
Despite the potential problems lurking in the background I actually feel that stock market should go up and expect Volatility to remain in a sideways pattern.
I doubt that market participants can muster the energy to really focus on any major issue and aggressively force the market down.
Of course...one always has to expect the unexpected.
Happy Holidays.
Steve Benger
About Me
- Steve Benger
- Chicago, IL, United States
- Helping Fortune 100 companies to Start Ups to become more efficient and reduce costs. Expert in the development and implementation of outsourcing services (BPO).
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